positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.

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I can’t see any reason for this though!!

harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central

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Given every horse’s probability of winning a race, what is the probability that a specific horse will finish 2nd and 3rd? Last edited by jfdinneen; at I have included cormula in the last 35 races and it improves the results let’s see how long that last. Hi John, Yes I definately changed that because I used your equation and then I also did each stage in excel seperately.

Copyright – — PaceAdvantage. Ugly multivariate normal integrals to approximate. This question is a follow-on from this question.

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Placing probability depends far more on the horses involved in a race than on the maths. I have developed code to calculate the probabilities by implementing the formulas provided in the above mentioned question. My coefficients for place and show in my model are different than the. This calculates the probability of finishing 2nd for each horse.


I am getting a different result to you though when i do it manually and I can’t work out why. I have the original henery formula which is very complex as I am sure you know but hadn’t beena ble to get the revised one, so hwrville you very much.

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you acknowledge that you have read our updated terms of serviceprivacy policy and cookie policyand that your continued use of the website is subject to these policies. Hi John, Yes I definately changed that because I used your equation and then I also did each stage in excel seperately.

Best wishes, John Last edited by jfdinneen; at I remember at least one attempt to use another model like Harville, but with normal random variables instead.

Discounted Harville – Page 2 – Horse Racing Forum – – Horse Racing Message Board

John Thanks for the update. Discover Live Editor Create scripts with code, output, and formatted text in a single executable document. The following code implements the formula: So am I right in understanding that if you are using your own probabilities then use the.

I inadvertently added an additional SUM term to both equations in my original repy – apologies – never post mathematical equations to forum late at night! Updated 15 Aug Harville in Journal of the Amer. Formulae in Mathematical Notation Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days.


Okay this is how I understand the formulas below, can anybody correct me if I am wrong. Many races might be such that the Harville formulae would work fine, but other races would need an adaption to the numbers that would be very specific to the horses in that particular race. Visit Dave Schwartz’s homepage! Each horse is represented by a ‘horseData’ object containing variables such as the horse id a unique number to identify the horsethe probability of winning Pwthe probability of finishing 2nd P2ndthe probability of finishing third P3rd among other variables.

See the paper by D. The exacta formula works a treat, but somehow I cannot get a sensible result out of the trifecta formula. Based on your location, we recommend that you select: