positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.

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I have the original henery formula which is very complex as I am sure you know but hadn’t beena ble to get the revised one, so thank you very much. The exacta formula works a treat, but somehow I cannot get a sensible result out of the trifecta formula.

Note that tractability issues arise because you have to sum over all exactas where H2 places in order to calculate the H2 place probability. Spot 2, 4 9. Find More Posts by Dave Schwartz. The Harville method for exacta, quinella and trifecta probabilities.

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I have included it in the last 35 races and it improves the results let’s see how long that last. Email Required, but never shown. The most relevant one is: The time now is These days it seems even more difficult because the money formyla off-track is not added to the tote board until after you can no longer make a bet.

SInce there are horses who have a good prob. Michael, Did you remember to change the prob H3, wins value from 0. Post Your Answer Discard By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you acknowledge that you have read our updated terms of serviceprivacy policy and cookie policyand that your continued harviloe of the website is subject to these policies.

Michael, As you say, it does not make any sense. I just clicked one on of the links “how not to be wrong Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days.

Harville in Journal of the Amer. I’ve been so impressed with the level of knowledge here, I’ve no idea how I hadn’t found this forum before. However the sum of foormula probabilities does not add to one. Forum Mark Forums Read. And we only need all permutations of the first 3 horses for betting purposes.

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harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central

In my younger days, I tried to follow their method at the track. Given every horse’s probability of winning a race, what is the probability that a specific horse will finish 2nd and 3rd?

The sum of these probabilities adds to one. John Although I did not find the spreadsheet that JF Dinneen mentioned, I am much more interested in that blog site itself. Sign up using Email and Password.

I am a little confused I admit. Talking Handicapping with Dave Schwartz. I have included the “informed Factor” size into my bet size calculations. Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days.

Discounted Harville – Page 2 – Horse Racing Forum – – Horse Racing Message Board

Basically, you have probabilities for each horse winning. The formula appears to be incorrect. Page 2 of 2. Michael, As you say, it harille not make any sense. All times are GMT